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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement wins the award. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest shock.

But the current field is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and longtime underperformers rising together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still